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Peeyush Raj committed May 11, 2024
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33 changes: 22 additions & 11 deletions .obsidian/workspace.json
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152 changes: 77 additions & 75 deletions askhn-a-new-decade-any-predictions.md
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Here are the grammatically corrected predictions:

# Future: Keep an eye on
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21944518

2020
- CS core —> AI
- CS basic —> all the other fields
- Obesity, depression, mental health
- CS core AI
- CS basic all the other fields
- Obesity, depression, mental health
- Clean air, water
- Remote workings impact on culture
- Remote working's impact on culture

2030
- Fall of amazon
- return of gamification
- Rise of software. Software 2.0
- Beginning: Decentralized hardware to support decentralized internet
- Fall of Amazon
- Return of gamification
- Rise of software, Software 2.0
- Beginning: Decentralized hardware to support decentralized internet

2040
- Rise of malls
Expand All @@ -21,102 +23,102 @@ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21944518

Prediction 2020

Field: Software -
Field: Software

Around the start of the decade -
Around the start of the decade:

- Nearly every old SAAS company would become a platform, offering marketplace and hosting for custom built solutions.
- Rise of very narrowly focussed software companies. (superhuman for X trend - to me this means - software with an extremely narrow set of features, with a focus on being fast).
- Came True - https://twitter.com/vsodera/status/1297956815297114113?s=20
- Nearly every old SaaS company would become a platform, offering a marketplace and hosting for custom-built solutions.
- Rise of very narrowly focused software companies (superhuman for X trend - to me this means software with an extremely narrow set of features, with a focus on being fast).
- Came True - https://twitter.com/vsodera/status/1297956815297114113?s=20
- Reduced time to market for software products, followed by a decline in the quality of software (performance, security, speed of building features).
- Rise in number of open-source full-fledged-products.
- Rise of NoCode, would facilitate the Rise of micro-SAAS.
- Came True, every company is no-code

COVID Effects -
- Bloodbath in service based companies
- FAANG, Salesforce, bigger older tech companies gain platform strength
- Software needs to become a tool again, rather than a thing of magic. Everyone uses the software, but the software is coming in between the user and the task.
- Rise in the number of open-source full-fledged products.
- Came True
- Rise of NoCode, which would facilitate the rise of micro-SaaS.
- Came True, every company is no-code

COVID Effects:
- Bloodbath in service-based companies
- FAANG, Salesforce, and bigger, older tech companies gain platform strength
- Software needs to become a tool again, rather than a thing of magic. Everyone uses software, but the software is coming in between the user and the task.
- Design is not how it looks, but how it works
- Giants are going to copy the design, but can't beat the product UX or how it works
- Consolidation is happening all around the place, every new offering is getting copied by the giants
- PM in giants are going to suck the life out of the product --> There in lies the opportunity
- Attention span is further going to get shortened, this means software + AI needs to provide user with a decision, based on all the data points required by the user.
- Giants are going to copy the design but can't beat the product UX or how it works
- Consolidation is happening all around; every new offering is getting copied by the giants
- PMs in giants are going to suck the life out of the product → Therein lies the opportunity
- Attention span is going to get further shortened; this means software + AI needs to provide the user with a decision based on all the data points required by the user.
- Data integration from various sources
- Data integration needs to be citizen-driven, no-code, usable, seamless
- eg - trader needs to read the IPO doc, the trader can select the type of data required out of the doc, fed to his algorithms, and decision would be taken
- it's AI as a compute tool + Human as a decision maker
- Software tools need to be uniform, in terms of the UI and the features, so that anyone can simply adjust the software according to his own job requirements, rather than relearning the software. Innovation within a software vertical is slowing down, all softwares have the same features, configuring a cisco router is same as configuring any run-of-the-mill router provider.
- E.g., a trader needs to read the IPO doc; the trader can select the type of data required out of the doc, feed it to their algorithms, and a decision would be made
- It's AI as a compute tool + Human as a decision-maker
- Software tools need to be uniform in terms of UI and features so that anyone can simply adjust the software according to their own job requirements rather than relearning the software. Innovation within a software vertical is slowing down; all software has the same features, configuring a Cisco router is the same as configuring any run-of-the-mill router provider.
- GenZ, the video generation, needs to have a social network that's all video + virtual
- VR [boom] + Facebook [boom] + needs an open source eco-system - that's not android or iphone
- VR [boom] + Facebook [boom] + needs an open-source ecosystem - that's not Android or iPhone
- The discussion forums have to be all video
- The blogs have to be all video
- what has happened with the games, is going to happen to the job, genz using the software and relaying how they solved the problem
- everything becomes a twitch stream
- What has happened with games is going to happen to jobs; GenZ using the software and relaying how they solved the problem
- Everything becomes a Twitch stream
- Seamless privacy enablement using AI should be there in the video
- Company certifications test needs a reboot, going to test center and paying up a lot of money is no longer worth it. What duolingo has done to the english test, needs to happen to the company-wise-certifications - Azure certified, etc
- Company certification tests need a reboot; going to a test center and paying a lot of money is no longer worth it. What Duolingo has done to the English test needs to happen to company-wise certifications - Azure certified, etc.
- New hardware + new compiler + energy efficient + affordable + fast = support AI + Quantum Computing + Quantum Network
- Instant everything
- Hospitals --> doctor on demand + cheap sensors (apple watch) + remote clinic (expensive machines and tests only) + same doctor everywhere (personal doctor)

- Hospitals → doctor on demand + cheap sensors (Apple Watch) + remote clinic (expensive machines and tests only) + same doctor everywhere (personal doctor)

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Around the middle of the decade -
### Around the middle of the decade:

- Rise of paid Open Source developers.
- Rise of IT dept. in the organizations.
- Rise of IT dept. in organizations.
- Data engineering would be a part of IT.
- Came True
- More organizations would turn to in-house development.
- Rise of FAAS (Feature as a Service) on the top of the SAAS and Open Source, would be facilitated by a small set of team, serving the Enterprise market.
- Every IDE would offer ML based code-completion. This would be adopted quite quickly by the companies, in hopes that tech-debt would be paid.
- Rise of FAAS (Feature as a Service) on top of SaaS and Open Source, facilitated by a small set of teams serving the Enterprise market.
- Came True -- GenAI Agents
- Every IDE would offer ML-based code completion. This would be adopted quite quickly by companies in hopes that tech debt would be paid.
- Came True
- Experienced software engineers would consolidate behind the core-tech companies or churn out of the industry.
-

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Around the end of the decade -
### Around the end of the decade:

- CS (subject) would just become AI/ML and would follow the path of core engineering degrees, where having a post-grad degree is no longer optional.
Would be offered as a combined UG+PG degree.
Curriculum would be more or less the same, only the name change would happen for the UG.
Universities would struggle to attract candidates in the CS stream as the popularity of lambda school and other bootcamps soars.
- CS (subject) would just become AI/ML and would follow the path of core engineering degrees, where having a post-grad degree is no longer optional.
- It would be offered as a combined UG+PG degree.
- The curriculum would be more or less the same; only the name change would happen for the UG.
- Universities would struggle to attract candidates in the CS stream as the popularity of lambda schools and other bootcamps soar.
- Well, lambda school
- CS (subject) would be merged with other degrees to offer combined degrees.
Curriculum would include the first two years of CS - programming, database, data structure, data engineering, software engineering and some IT subjects around devops.
- Rise of industry, function specific NoCode apps/services.
- PostGres-Rust - relase of postgres, rewitten in Rust (in general - nGinx, Python, not all, but one of the major tech component)

- Day 0 for Sofware industry.
It bottoms out, before rising up again in the next decade.
Mythical man-months would be the bible for the new s/w industry.
- Day 0 for the distributed internet, distributed apps.

- A hardware company, bigger than Intel at its peak.
- First truly distributed organization, start of an experiment.
- The curriculum would include the first two years of CS - programming, database, data structure, data engineering, software engineering, and some IT subjects around DevOps.
- Might come true.
- Rise of industry and function-specific NoCode apps/services.
- Came True.
- PostGres-Rust - release of Postgres, rewritten in Rust (in general - Nginx, Python, not all, but one of the major tech components)
- Day 0 for the Software industry.
- it bottoms out before rising again in the next decade.
- Came True.
- The Mythical Man-Month would be the bible for the new software industry.
- Day 0 for the distributed internet and distributed apps.
- A hardware company bigger than Intel at its peak.
- Came True: nvidia
- The first truly distributed organization, start of an experiment.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Random Predictions
### Random Predictions

- Amazon would peak.

- Nationalist sentiments are on the rise in India, this might force consumer facing companies to take some drastic measures, such as - Walmart and Amazon to either merge or leave India.
---- This came to be true, but because of corona, the world is planning to move from globalization to localization.
- Gold rates would be all time high.
---- This came to be true, but not because I was thinking about Corona, rather I was thinking about the boom in semiconductor industry and how the software would need new hardware.

- Mental health issues would be on a rise.

- Cloud kitchens/ delivey only restaurants would be a norm.
---- This came to be true, but not because I was thinking about Corona

- Ownership would start moving towards digital (digital money, space in VR land, etc).

- Expect breakthroughs in quantum computing and internet.

- Nationalist sentiments are on the rise in India; this might force consumer-facing companies to take some drastic measures, such as Walmart and Amazon either merging or leaving India.
- This came to be true, but because of Corona, the world is planning to move from globalization to localization.
- Gold rates would be at an all-time high.
- This came to be true, but not because I was thinking about Corona; rather, I was thinking about the boom in the semiconductor industry and how software would need new hardware.
- Mental health issues would be on the rise.
- Cloud kitchens/delivery-only restaurants would be the norm.
- This came to be true, but not because I was thinking about Corona

- Ownership would start moving towards digital (digital money, space in VR land, etc.).
- Expect breakthroughs in quantum computing and the internet.
- Hope for some progress in self-configurable robots.
- The sharing economy would grow.
- Might not come to be true because of Corona.

- Sharing economy would grow.
---- Might not come to be true because of Corona.

=======================================================

=======================================================
19 changes: 10 additions & 9 deletions bad-decision.md
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# Thought: Value of clarifying decisions
if one can’t justify their decision, in the clearest terms, and, since the communication has a tendency to get distorted, the directly/indirectly affected people, or the people executing decisions would either
- make mistakes
- leave the company
- criticize the judgment
- criticize the leader
- become indifferent
- gets confused and their productivity tanks.
# Thought: Value of Clarifying Decisions

If one can't justify their decision in the clearest terms, and since communication has a tendency to get distorted, the people directly or indirectly affected, or those executing the decisions, would either:

It’s a loose-loose relationship if a leader can't justify their decisions, answer the questions openly.
- Make mistakes
- Leave the company
- Criticize the judgment
- Criticize the leader
- Become indifferent
- Get confused, causing their productivity to tank

It's a lose-lose relationship if a leader can't justify their decisions and answer questions openly.
6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions being-good.md
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# Being good at anything works.
# Being Good at Anything Works

If the thing you are good at was not needed, it would have been lost in the evolution.
If the thing you are good at was not needed, it would have been lost in evolution.

if the thing you are good at doesn't exist, tell it to the world nonetheless, people follow passion and not the man, the idea will evolve.
If the thing you are good at doesn't exist, tell it to the world nonetheless; people follow passion, not the person. The idea will evolve.
17 changes: 7 additions & 10 deletions better-user-nps.md
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# better user feedback collection mechanism for apps
- the “rate us” sucks, bad UX
- nos collection bars on the top of the website sucks, it’s too far away from the user focused on the work

something entirely new needs to be built here, where product can ask very specific question on a very specific task, without adding new step between the user’s transaction completion workflow

eg: surprise feature for the user, that made the user smile, prompt then and there an emoji to capture the user’s feedback

user checking out, build a smiley near the checkout cart where user can tap and keep pressing the emoji to share the love (medium claps)

# User Feedback Collection

- The "rate us" feature sucks; it's bad UX.
- NPS (Net Promoter Score) collection bars on the top of the website suck; they're too far away from the user who is focused on their work.

Something entirely new needs to be built here, where the product can ask a very specific question about a very specific task without adding a new step between the user's transaction completion workflow.

For example:
- When a user encounters a surprise feature that makes them smile, prompt them right then and there with an emoji to capture their feedback.
- When a user is checking out, place a smiley near the checkout cart where the user can tap and keep pressing the emoji to share their love (similar to Medium claps).
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