Code, input data and model outputs for Borrelle et al. 2020. Science. Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plastic pollution. The Model run output file is >50Mb so is not included here. Recommend setting up a symlink to call model run data from to plot.
Link to the paper: https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aba3656
Plastic pollution is a planetary threat, affecting nearly every marine and freshwater ecosystem globally. In response, multi-level mitigation strategies are being adopted, but with a lack of quantitative assessments of how such strategies reduce plastic emissions. We assessed the impact of three broad management strategies, plastic waste reduction, waste management, and environmental recovery, at different levels of effort to estimate plastic emissions to 2030 for 173 countries. We estimate that 19.3 – to 23.4 million metric tons, or 11%, of plastic waste generated globally in 2016, entered aquatic ecosystems. Considering the ambitious commitments currently set by governments, annual emissions may reach up to 53 million metric tons per year by 2030. To reduce emissions to a level well below this prediction, extraordinary efforts to transform the global plastics economy are needed.