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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<title>Bernhard Clemm</title>
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I am currently pursuing four research lines: (1) How do people process (mis)information and what is the role of source crediblity and media trust? (2) How are political attitudes are affected by media exposure, specifically through web browsing? (3) What drives politicians to engage in negative campaigning? (4) How does ecological change affect political behaviour? I use data from online experiments, surveys, social media, trace data, and geospatial administrative data. Methodologically, I am interested in computational methods, measurement, causal inference, browsing data analysis, and open science.
Below, an overview of publications (work in progress greyed out).
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<div class="text-start">
<h4>Misinformation, fake news and source credibility</h4>
<p>
<b>"Truth and Bias: Left and Right. Testing ideological asymmetries with a realistic news supply"</b>, <i>Public Opinion Quarterly</i>, 2023
<br>
<a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/poq/nfad013/7147091" target="_blank">Paper</a> |
<a href="https://osf.io/bf2vu/" target="_blank">Pre-registration</a> |
<a href="https://osf.io/82w7u" target="_blank">Replication code</a>
</p>
<p><b>"When Do Sources Persuade? The Effect of Source Credibility on Opinion Change"</b>, with Andy M. Guess (Princeton University), <i>Journal of Experimental Political Science</i>, 2022
<br>
<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-experimental-political-science/article/when-do-sources-persuade-the-effect-of-source-credibility-on-opinion-change/48ECC9B706B2C3BA733936BE184917CC" target="_blank">Paper</a> |
<a href="https://osf.io/wgs73" target="_blank">Pre-registration</a> |
<a href="https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi%3A10.7910%2FDVN%2FGEJGV8&version=DRAFT" target="_blank">Replication code</a>
</p>
<p><b>"Horseshoe Patterns: Visualizing Partisan Media Trust in Germany"</b>, with Paul C. Bauer (MZES University of Mannheim), <i>Socius</i>, 2021
<br>
<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/23780231211028786" target="_blank">Paper</a> |
<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/suppl/10.1177/23780231211028786" target="_blank">Replication code</a>
</p>
<p>
<b>"Believing and Sharing Information by Fake Sources: An Experiment"</b>, with Paul C. Bauer (MZES University of Mannheim), <i>Political Communication</i>, 2021
<br>
<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10584609.2020.1840462" target="_blank">Paper</a> |
<a href="https://egap.org/content/media-sources-fake-news-and-trust" target="_blank">Pre-registration</a> |
<a href="https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/EJYWCK" target="_blank">Replication code</a>
</p>
<p>
<b>"Truth and Bias: Robust findings?"</b>, 2020
<br>
<a href="https://osf.io/yj2rn" target="_blank">Working paper</a> |
<a href="https://github.com/BernhardClemm/paper-left-right-review" target="_blank">Replication code</a>
</p>
<p>
<b>"An Ocean of Possible Truth: Biased Processing of News on Social Media"</b>, 2018
<br>
<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3281038" target="_blank">Working paper</a> |
<a href="https://github.com/BernhardClemm/paper-ocean-of-truth-git" target="_blank">Replication code</a>
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"School Debating and Misinformation Detection: A Randomized Control Trial in Poland"</b> with Krzys Krakowski (Collegio Carlo Alberto) and Davide Morisi (Collegio Carlo Alberto), review & resubmit at <i>Journal of Politics</i>
<br>
<a href="https://osf.io/jd8cr" target="_blank">Pre-registration</a>
</p>
<hr>
<h4>Media effects and exposure</h4>
<p>
<b>"Non-news websites expose people to more political content than news websites: Evidence from browsing data in three countries"</b>, with Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis), Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University), Sjifra de Leeuw (University of Amsterdam), João Gonçalves (University of Rotterdam), Sam Davidson (UC Davis), Alexandre Gonçalves (Columbia University), <i>Political Communication</i>, 2023
<br>
<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10584609.2023.2238641" target="_blank">Paper</a> |
<a href="https://osf.io/nd2wj" target="_blank">Replication code</a>
</p>
<p>
<b>"Null effects of news exposure: a test of the (un)desirable effects of a 'news vacation' and 'news binging'"</b>, with Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis), Andreu Casas (VU Amsterdam), Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University), Sjifra de Leeuw, Alexandre Gonçalves (UC Davis) and Miriam Boon (University of Regina), <i>Humanities and Social Sciences Communications</i>, 2022
<br>
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01423-x" target="_blank">Paper</a> |
<a href="https://osf.io/6rphw/" target="_blank">Pre-registration</a> |
<a href="https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/HAL4VG" target="_blank">Replication code</a>
</p>
<p><b>"The (Null) Over-time Effects of Exposure to Local News Websites: Evidence from Trace Data"</b>, with Jane Cronin (American University), João Gonçalves (University of Rotterdam), Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis), Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University), <i>Journal of Information Technology & Politics</i>, 2022
<br>
<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19331681.2022.2123878?scroll=top&needAccess=true" target="_blank">Paper</a> |
<a href="https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LZSS6G" target="_blank">Replication code</a>
</p>
<p>
<b>"Micro Influence and Macro Dynamics of Opinion Formation"</b>, with Michael Mäs (University of Groningen) and Bary Pradelski (CNRS/Grenoble), 2017
<br>
<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2974413" target="_blank">Working paper</a>
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"The Cure Worse Than the Disease? How the Media's Attention to Misinformation Decreases Trust"</b> with Emma Hoes (University of Zürich), Theresa Gessler (European University Viadrina), Sijia Qian (UC Davis), Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis), review & resubmit at <i>International Journal of Press/Politics</i>
<br>
<a href="https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/4m92p" target="_blank">Pre-print</a> |
<a href="https://osf.io/b36hy" target="_blank">Pre-registration</a>
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"Causes of perceived polarization: An over-time analysis of the effects of media coverage of polarization in three countries"</b> with Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis) and Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University), review & resubmit at <i>Political Communication</i>
<br>
<a href="https://osf.io/cd5rx" target="_blank">Pre-registration</a>
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"Incentivizing news consumption with bots on Twitter"</b>, with Hadi Askari (UC Davis), Michael Heseltine (University of Amsterdam), Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis), Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University), Zubair Shafiq (UC Davis) and Anshuman Chabra (UC Davis). Work in progress.
</p>
<hr>
<h4>Environmental change and politics</h4>
<p><b>"Wolf attacks predict far-right voting"</b>, with Anselm Hager (HU Berlin), <i>PNAS</i>, 2022
<br>
<a href="https://www.pnas.org/eprint/6SKFARH4WF3RDM38VKDV/full" target="_blank">Paper</a> |
<a href="https://aspredicted.org/blind.php?x=JNB_4Y3" target="_blank">Pre-registration</a> |
<a href="https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi%3A10.7910%2FDVN%2FOOHLYX&version=DRAFT" target="_blank">Replication code</a>
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"The effect of legal hunting on livestock depredation"</b>, with Neil Carter (Michigan State University), Leandra Merz (Michigan State University) & Jeremy Bruskotter (Ohio State University). Work in progress.
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"Do wolf attacks affect electoral behavior? Evidence from the U.S."</b>, with Neil Carter (Michigan State University), Leandra Merz (Michigan State University). Work in progress.
</p>
<hr>
<h4>Negativity in political campaigning</h4>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"Why Do Candidates 'Go Negative'? Unpacking the Mechanisms of Negative Campaigning"</b> with Sebastian Stier (GESIS), Corinna Oschatz (University of Amsterdam), Alessandro Nai (University of Amsterdam), Jürgen Maier (RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau) and Nora Kirkizh (TU Munich). Work in progress.
<br>
<a href="https://osf.io/a4rpz/?view_only=2ccad8addede4622a4ee7f83e5abe373" target="_blank">Pre-registration</a>
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"Predictors of Negative Campaigning at the local and national level"</b> with Sebastian Stier (GESIS), Corinna Oschatz (University of Amsterdam), Jürgen Maier (RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau). Work in progress.
</p>
<hr>
<h4>Methodology</h4>
</p>
<b>"Google News API"</b> in Paul C. Bauer and Camille Landesvater (2022): "APIs for social scientists: A collaborative review"
<br>
<a href="https://bookdown.org/paul/apis_for_social_scientists/google-news-api.html" target="_blank">Chapter</a> |
<a href="https://github.com/paulcbauer/apis_for_social_scientists_a_review" target="_blank">Repository</a>
</p>
<p>
<b>"Statistical analysis of trace data: a guide"</b>, with Sebastian Stier (GESIS), Ana S. Cardenal (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya), Andy Guess (Princeton), Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis) & Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University). <i>Social Science Computer Review</i>, 2024.
<br>
<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/08944393241227868" target="_blank">Paper</a> |
<a href="https://bernhardclemm.com/browsing-data-code-guide/guide.html" target="_blank">Code guide</a>
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"Large Language Models as a Substitute for Human Experts in Annotating Political Text"</b> with Michael Heseltine (University of Amsterdam). Under Review at <i>Research and Politics</i>.
<br>
<a href="https://osf.io/cx752" target="_blank">Pre-print</a>
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"Measuring news exposure with self-reports and traces: bias on both sides?"</b>, with Chankyung Pak (Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University), Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University) & Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis). Work in progress.
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"Stimulus validity"</b>: Building on the working paper "Truth and Bias: Robust findings?" posted below, I argue that researchers in political science often design their studies around stimuli that are supposed to represent a larger universe of information, yet they rarely justify their selection of stimuli. Work in progress.
</p>
<p style="opacity: 0.6">
<b>"Media Ideology in Multiparty Systems: Validated Scores for 16 European Countries"</b> with Michael Heseltine (University of Amsterdam). Estimating media ideology with social media sharing patterns has so far been restricted to the US. We add to literature with data from Europe. Work in progress.
</p>
<!-- <p>
<b>"Measuring outside search in survey experiments"</b> with Fabio Torregiani (University of Milan): In many survey experiments related to political knowledge and misinformation, researchers do not control whether subjects "look up" the answer. We test ways to obtain subjects' browsing history with their consent, in order to measure outside search behaviour.
</p> -->
<!-- <p>
<b>"Fake news on social media: How platforms provide credibility signals"</b> with Fabio Torregiani (University of Milan): We explore the possibility that social media platforms provide credibility to untrustworthy sources, by providing all content the same "post" design with strips the content of signals of high or low credibility.
</p> -->
<!-- <p>
<b>"Shareworthiness, source credibility and congruence"</b> with Paul Bauer (MZES University of Mannheim): In this paper, we explore two factors that could influence people's news sharing behaviour: the credibility of the source and whether the content is congruent with a someone's attitudes. We find that congruence matters; sources make little difference, not even attenuating the bias towards sharing congruent content.
</p>
<p>
<b>Thompson sampling in survey research</b>: Adaptive experimentation, e.g. Thompson sampling, solves the "multiarmed bandit problem": You want to know which option yields the highest payoffs. But instead of trying all options the same number of times, you aim to try the best option more often than others. I argue that in pre-testing stimuli for experimental research, we're often in a similar situation: We would like to know which of several stimuli is the "best" option. Conventionally, we test all options the same number of times first, and choose one option for our later study. In this project, I explore how adaptive experimentation can make pre-testing superfluous.
</p> -->
<hr>
<!-- <p>
<b>"Do theories of European integration shed some light on a possible disintegration?"</b>, 2012
<br>
<a href="https://www.academia.edu/2310812/Do_theories_of_European_integration_shed_some_light_on_a_possible_disintegration" target="_blank">Paper</a>
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<h5>Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg</h5>
<p class="smalltext">Quantitative Political Scientist</p>
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